Interpreting Estimated Environmental Kuznets Curves for Greenhouse Gases

This paper examines the question of how to interpret a relationship between income and carbon emissions in a country (the environmental Kuznets curve – EKC -for carbon). A very simple and graphical structural model of an EKC is developed and the problems of applying the concept to carbon are discussed. A major issue is the weak link between demand to avoid damage from climate change and regulations limiting greenhouse gas emissions at the country level. The paper goes on to interpret three recent papers in this Journal in the context of this structural model. 1 Email: [email protected]. This paper is an expansion of comments at a conference at the World Resources Institute in September 2005, on papers published in a special issue (March 2005) of the Journal of Environment and Development. I am grateful to three anonymous referees for valuable comments on an earlier version of this paper.